Zero RB Strategy in 2018: Making A Return Or A Thing Of The Past?
Zero RB Strategy in 2018
The year is 2013 and fantasy football drafts were dominated by running backs. 11 running backs were selected in the 1st round and just one receiver in PPR formats. Things began to change in 2014. The Zero RB draft strategy began gaining steam. For those unaware of the strategy, it calls for drafting the wide receiver position early and often. Then draft running backs that catch passes and have the potential to take over a backfield late in the draft.
In 2014, only six running backs were selected compared to four receivers. However, a running back was selected in five of the top six spots. In 2015 there were six running backs and five receivers gone in the first round, four of the top five picks being a running back. In 2014 and 2015 it was a sound strategy that allowed you to gain an advantage at receiver by getting two top-5 receivers, while everyone else was fighting over running backs.
The problem with this strategy came in 2016 when almost everyone was drafting Zero RB. The advantage of getting a top receiving tandem no longer existed. Too many receivers were flying off the board in 2016 and it’s an even split of six backs and six receivers. The big difference is five of the top seven picks in the first round were receivers.
By the time the 2017 draft season rolled around, most people were saying Zero RB was a dead draft strategy that was faulty or didn’t work. Now in 2018 everyone is all in on drafting running backs in the 1st. Current ADP has nine running backs being drafted in the 1st round.
The question now has to be asked, is Zero RB draft strategy dead or are people overlooking its success from 2013-2015? Has the lack of success in 2016 and 2017 caused a recency bias?
Why Zero RB Draft Strategy Worked
When looking back at 2013, when Zero RB strategy was in its infancy, there were 14 receivers scoring 250 or more PPR points compared to five running backs. In 2014 it was 12 receivers to seven running backs. When Zero RB was exploding in 2015, there were 14 wide-outs to score over 250 while just two running backs were able to surpass the same threshold.
The Zero RB draft strategy was booming and successful between 2013 and 2015. This occurred in large part because backfields were being split and injuries were happening to star running backs. This was also the time when teams were becoming extremely pass heavy. The success also came because running back was a valued position by drafters and were being selected early and often. These same backs would then often times fail to return value based on draft spot.
In 2015 this strategy would allow a Zero RB drafter in the middle of round 1 to select Julio Jones, A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon Marshall, and Allen Robinson in the first five rounds. All five players scored more than 270 points. This would allow you to get Danny Woodhead in the 6th (3rd RB in PPR) and Darren McFadden in the 7th (13th RB). This is obviously a perfect storm for a draft but goes to show why the strategy was so successful in 2015.
2018 is the Reincarnation of Zero RB
Early 2018 ADP is very RB heavy which coincides with the Zero RB draft strategy’s hay day (2013-2015). 2018 could be the perfect storm to allow for a resurgence of the Zero RB draft strategy.
With the 8th pick this year you could select DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams in the first 2 rounds. Your options in the 3rd are Larry Fitzgerald, TY Hilton, and Stefon Diggs. Your 4th round receiving options are Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Brandin Cooks. You can take your first back in the 5th with Dion Lewis or Ronald Jones. In PPR formats, this would be one heck of a start. Seven of the receivers (Hopkins, Adams, Fitzgerald, Diggs, Jeffery, Cooks, and Thomas) finished as top 20 WRs in 2017.
With the focus on drafting running back early, 2018 is the season to zig when everyone else is zagging and draft Zero RB.
Why Zero RB Failed
In 2016 receivers failed to produce like they had from 2013-2015. There were only eight receivers to top 250 points while seven running backs accomplished the same feat. Three of the six first-round picks failed to score 200 points. 50% (7 of 14) of the receivers taken in the 1st two rounds failed to score in the top 23 WRs. On the contrary, of the 10 running backs taken in the first two rounds, only three failed to score in the top 20 at the position. The stability at running back returned in 2016. That fact and the receivers play dropping off, rendered the Zero RB draft strategy useless.
After the failure of Zero RB in 2016, most people were straying from the Zero RB draft strategy in 2017. The main focus was on taking at least one running back in the first two rounds. Those that drafted Zero RB in 2017 were most likely let down again. two of the six receivers taken in the 1st scored over 250 points. The worst part is only three of the 11 receivers taken in the 1st two rounds scored over 250 points.
Zero RB is Dead and Won’t Work in 2018
Over the last two years, receivers have not produced at the level they had from 2013-2015. However, running back production has increased since 2015. This makes taking a running back early, more important than ever. If you do not pick running back in the first two rounds, you are behind the eight ball. Only 28 running backs scored more than 150 points in 2017 compared to 39 receivers. This shows the receiver position is deeper allowing you to find more value later in the draft.
If you have the 3rd pick this season, you can take one of the top 4 backs (Todd Gurley, LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, or Ezekiel Elliott) with the first pick. In the second round, you could pick Mike Evans and follow that up in the 3rd with Joe Mixon, Doug Baldwin, or Tyreek Hill. This start gives you a top running back and a top receiver. It also lets you get another top back or receiver in the 3rd. By not drafting Zero RB your team will be well balanced. Your team will not rely too heavily on production from one position.
Zero RB draft strategy is not the best strategy in 2018 due to the level of play of the top running backs and receivers production falling off.
Best Draft Strategy Conclusion
The Zero RB strategy has an excellent chance of being successful if you have a late pick in 2018. Ideally the 10th, 11th, or 12th pick in a snake draft. However, this strategy is not something you can plan for. The ZERO RB strategy will basically present itself to you in the form of watching your league-mates focus heavily on the running back position. At which point you’ll have the cream of the crop of wide receivers to choose from. Selecting back to back WR’s in the first and second rounds set the wheels in motion for you to continue to choose to load up on wide receivers or at least start your draft that way. If you have a late pick in a PPR draft this season, you’re very unlikely to see owners avoid receivers, however, it could happen in a 0.5 PPR league.
In any case, be prepared with having key late-round running backs in mind if you do decide to take on the Zero RB Strategy. Check out the following articles/pages for tips to plan ahead:
My Personal Take
As cliche as it may sound, the best strategy in 2018 may very well be to draft the best available player. Then fill your team needs later in the draft. I don’t think there is a perfect or best strategy in 2018. Your own personal strategy should depend on your draft position.
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Derek Wiley | Zero RB Strategy in 2018: Making A Return Or A Thing Of The Past? - Gridiron Experts
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