Fantasy Football Sleepers: Week 15

Posted by Doc Fantasy
Saturday, December 16, 2017 | 0 comments

Week 15 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Last weekend might not have been the best time of the year to dive into the bag of tricks, but considering how advanced leagues are getting with multiple flex spots and the excessive number of big-name injuries in the NFL this season, finding a few fantasy football sleepers could be exactly what you need to advance to the post-season in your league.

This article also works great for those of you who are calling it a year and are looking for some DFS Sleepers for DraftKings or Fanduel. I would also suggest checking out our Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings for more tips and advice.

One of the biggest surprises on the Week 14 overall fantasy scoring leaderboard came in the likes of Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart. Rushing for 103 yards and three touchdowns on 16 carries, Stewart is continuing to emerge as a reliable Flex option in standard scoring formats as he’s scored at least one touchdown in four of his past six games since Week 8. Finishing Week 14 third in overall fantasy production with 28.3 points, Stewart, the RB14 with 65.9 points in his last six games should be considered a touchdown-dependent Flex option for the remainder of the year.

The following is a recap of the players from my Week 14 Fantasy Football Sleepers article. You can read that here.

Entering Week 15, some fantasy owners may be forced to shop the waiver wire due to a handful of notable injuries around the league. With players that include Carson Wentz, Josh McCown, and Amari Cooper all succumbing to injuries last week, be sure to check out Andrew Erickson’s Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 15 to assist you with filling the vacant holes on your fantasy rosters. You can read that here.

Week 15 QB Fantasy Sleepers

Blake Bortles
ESPN Start-Percentage: 12.9%


Would anyone look at me crazy if I said that Blake Bortles is producing at a top 10 fantasy quarterback level since Week 9? Well, you can look at me funny all you want, but it’s true! In fact, after finishing the first half of the year — from Weeks 1-to-8 — as the QB26 with 91.6 points and a 13.1 FPPG average, Bortles is fantasy football’s QB6 with 107.5 fantasy points while averaging 17.9 FPPG in his past six games. He is currently producing at a higher level than Drew Brees and Tom Brady, who are fantasy’s QB10 and QB14 from Weeks 9-to-14.


In his upcoming matchup against the Texans, Bortles will face a team he knows all too well. I fact, in seven career games against them, he’s thrown for a 1,374-7-8 quarterback stat line while adding another 127 yards and a score as a rusher. However, while his numbers appear uplifting to the naked eye, he’s been terribly inconsistent in those meetings. How so, well in every other matchup since Dec. 7, 2014, which were all home games, he’s performed tremendously better than he has on the road.





In 2017, however, the home/ away trend was broken. Opening the season at Houston in a game in which he threw for a pedestrian 125-1-0 stat line, Bortles will not only look to continue his streak of playing well against the Texans at home, but he will also try to maintain his recent string of success in the second half of the 2017 season on Sunday. Facing a Texans defense surrendering the fourth most fantasy production to QBs at an 18.8 FPPG rate — they’ve allowed at least 19.8 fantasy points to an opposing QB in six of their past seven games since their Week 7 Bye — Bortles holds back-end QB1 upside for Week 15.

Joe Flacco
ESPN Start-Percentage: 2.0%


Oh boy, now you know I’m digging deep when I’m featuring  Joe Flacco as a fantasy sleeper. However, because of his recent success — he’s accumulated at least 15.1 fantasy points in three of his past five games — Flacco had made the cut.


Looking deeper into Flacco’s 2017 resurgence, it began in Week 9, one week after Alex Collins broke out as the Ravens’ RB1. And as a result of his success on the ground, the passing lanes up have opened up for Flacco. Since Collins is producing at such a high-level — he is the RB7 with 88.1 fantasy points since Week 8 — the opposing defense must stack the box, exposing their secondary for a longtime NFL starter like Flacco to exploit.


Entering Sunday’s matchup against the Browns, I believe the Ravens will continue to pound the football with Collins while Flacco beats their secondary with the big-pass downfield. And since he has thrown for a 1,123-7-4 quarterback stat line in his past five games since Week 9 — he’s the QB22 with 69.6 fantasy points in that time span — Flacco is proving that is he still capable of putting up big fantasy numbers in the right matchup, especially since he’s a tossed pair of TDs in each of his past two contests against the Lions and Steelers respectively.


Moreover, not only is Flacco playing better of late, but he has also owned the Browns, accounting for 17 total touchdowns and eight interceptions in their last eight encounters since November 2013. Facing a Browns defense surrendering the fifth most fantasy production to QBs at an 18.6 FPPG pace — they’ve allowed an opposing QB to accumulate at least 344 yards passing or two touchdowns in each of their last three games — Flacco is an upside QB2 for Week 15. He’s a solid start in leagues in which you can start multiple QBs or as a value at in DFS.

Week 15 QB Fantasy Sleepers: Honorable Mention

Nick Foles
ESPN Start-Percentage: 13.7%


I’m not going to spend long on Nick Foles, but I believe he is worth an honorable mention as I believe in Flacco and Bortles more this week. However, while I trust the before-mentioned signal caller more from a fantasy perspective, I believe Foles will have a productive outing in Sunday’s contest against the Giants. Why?


Foles was drafted in 2012, which was the final year of the Andy Reid era in Philadelphia. And while Foles threw for a 2,891-27-2 quarterback stat line while completing 64 percent of his passes in 13 games — he added another 225 yards and three scores as a rusher — that was during the 2013 season, which was the start of the Chip Kelly’s tenure with the Eagles. Despite his uplifting year, Foles would eventually move on from Philadelphia, playing back up roles with the Rams and the Chiefs up until last season, before re-signing with the Eagles following a two-year absence last offseason. The significance? He played under Reid and Doug Pederson as the Chiefs’ QB2 in 2016. As a result, he should already be familiar with the Pederson’s system in Philadelphia.


Moreover, because of a sound running game — the Eagles are second in the league in rushing up to this point — plus with a slew of reliable pass-catchers that include Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz  — Foles and Ertz were teammates in the tight end’s rookie season in 2013 in which he put up a 36-469-4 stat line in 16 games — I believe Foles could be a serviceable fantasy asset this week. Facing a Giants defense yielding the most fantasy points to QBs at a 19.5 FPPG rate, Foles is a shot in the dark QB2 for Week 15.

Week 15 RB Fantasy Sleepers

Alfred Morris/ Rod Smith
ESPN Start-Percentage: 50.2% |15.1%


Although Alfred Morris has been the RB1 in Dallas while Ezekiel Elliott serves out his six-game suspension which he is eligible to return from next week, its been Rod Smith whose been garnering the fantasy attention out of the Cowboys’ backfield in the past three games. In fact, while Morris has been the RB24 with 46.5 fantasy points since Elliott begin his ban in Week 11, Smith has been the RB19 with 51.5 points in that same time span. Moreover, focusing on the past three games, while Morris remains reliable — he is the RB19 with 32.1 points since Week 12 — Smith has played outstanding, finishing as the RB9 with 47.5 points in that time period. Therefore, in the two games before his Week 12 breakout in which he scored a touchdown for the first time in his three-year career, Smith only accumulated a total of four fantasy points.


Now, I’m not saying not to start Smith, but he is a risk. Why? Well, I showed the fantasy points breakdown above, but here is how the numbers fall. While Morris has accumulated 369 yards rushing and a touchdown on 83 carries, adding another 36 yards on four receptions, Smith has produced 140 yards and three touchdowns on 36 attempts, adding another 135 yards and a score on 11-of-14 targets. As a result, Morris is dominating Smith in touches 87-to-47, nearly doubling his total. In translation, Morris is the safer start due to his opportunity-share whereas Smith is the upside option while being viewed extremely boom or bust.


Heading into a favorable Sunday night matchup facing a Raiders defense surrendering the 13th most fantasy points to RBs at a 19 FPPG rate — they’ve allowed an opposing RB to accumulate at least 104 total yards or a touchdown in six of their past seven games — consider Morris a safe back-end RB2 option while Smith is viewed a risky Flex start with boom upside for Week 15.

Mike Davis
ESPN Start-Percentage: 8.1%


Although Mike Davis (ribs) is dealing with a ribs injury suffered in last week’s loss to the Jaguars, he wasn’t listed in the final Week 15 injury report. Therefore, he is on track for an active designation in Sunday’s favorable matchup against a Rams defense surrendering the second-most fantasy points to RBs at a 22.6 FPG pace. However, even in a tough matchup, I’d still have faith in Davis this week due to his opportunity-share.


With Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls struggling mightily this season –they’ve become a non-factor in the Seattle backfield — J.D. McKissic is the lone Seahawks running back in line to challenge Daivs for touches. And since he’s emerged as the Seahawks RB1 back in Week 11, Davis has dominated McKissic in touches by a 44-to-30 margin, and that’s with the former missing one game in that four-game time span with a groin injury. The RB29 with 16.6 fantasy points while averaging 8.3 FPPG in his past two contests, Davis is an opportunity-dependent Flex option for Week 15.

Week 15 WR Fantasy Sleepers

Jordy Nelson
ESPN Start-Percentage: 52.5%


While some of you may not view Jordy Nelson as a sleeper since he’s been in the WR1 conversation for most of his career, hear me out for a second. It’s obvious Nelson is not the same player without Aaron Rodgers. In fact, back in 2013 when Rodgers missed seven games with his first collarbone injury, Nelson posted his lowest totals in his past four seasons leading up to 2017 as shown below.

Jordy Nelson’s Career Receiving Stats courtesy of Rotoworld:

Year	Team	G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	100	TD
2008		16	33	366	22.9	11.1	0	2
2009		13	22	320	24.6	14.5	0	2
2010		16	45	582	36.4	12.9	1	2
2011		16	68	1263	78.9	18.6	5	15
2012		12	49	745	62.1	15.2	2	7
2013		16	85	1314	82.1	15.5	5	8
2014		16	98	1519	94.9	15.5	7	13
2016		16	97	1257	78.6	13	5	14

Nelson began to emerge in 2013

• Nelson missed 2015 with a knee injury

Although there was a spike in his production back then, there has been a greater regression in 2017. In fact, after hauling in 25-of-38 targets for 290 yards and six touchdowns through the first six games of the year with Rodgers in the lineup — he missed the majority of Week 2 versus Atlanta in which he put up a blank stat line after leaving the game with a quad injury — he’s caught 22-of-39 targets for 178 yards and zero scores in his last seven games without the elite signal caller. As a result, he was the WR4 with 65 fantasy points from Weeks 1-to-6, while he’s been the WR95 with 15.3 points from Weeks 7-to-14. That’s a ridiculously tremendous drop-off in production. So much that he went from being a must-start matchup proof asset with Rodgers to an upside waiver wire option without him.

However, with Rodgers (collarbone) set to return in Sunday’s Week 15 encounter against the Panthers, Nelson’s fantasy value will be on the upswing. And I know this goes against all that I stand for, but because their rapport is undoubtedly top five amongst QB/ WR combos throughout the NFL, I view both players as matchup-proof. Entering a tough but exploitable matchup facing a Panthers defense surrendering the 12th most fantasy production to WRs at a 21.6 FPPG pace, Nelson, whose caught seven receptions for 192 yards and two touchdowns against the Panthers in three career games, holds WR1 upside for Week 15. And currently sitting at a 52.5 start-percentage at ESPN, Nelson is, in fact, in the sleeper conversation, at least for one week.

Robert Woods
ESPN Start-Percentage: 11.5%


With Robert Woods (shoulder) on track to return from his three-game absence due to a shoulder injury this week, I believe he will resume his role as the Rams’ WR1 for the remainder of the year. As a result, I consider him a reliable fantasy option upon his impending return for Sunday’s matchup against the Seahawks. Although 2017 is easily the breakout campaign of his five-year career — he is currently the WR32 with 93.5 fantasy points while only playing in 10 games up to this writing — it was an eight-week timespan in the middle of the season in which Woods did most of his damage. In fact, hauling in 43 receptions for 642 yards and four touchdowns from Weeks 3-to-11, Woods was the WR7 with 84.7 fantasy points in that time span.


And although Woods was quiet in his last matchup with the Seahawks that occurred earlier in the season — he caught 5-of-8 targets for 66 yards in the Week 5 contest — Seattle’s secondary was not only playing better back then, but they were healthier too. In fact, since their last meeting, the Legion formerly known as Boom lost both Kam Chancellor (neck) and Richard Sherman (Achilles) to season-ending neck and Achilles injuries respectively. At least for now, the Legion of Boom is no more, and neither is the Seahawks once-feared pass defense. In translation, I would employ all fantasy-relevant Rams’ wideouts in Sunday’s matchup. Facing a Seahawks defense surrendering the ninth most fantasy points to WRs at a 22.1 FPPG rate — Woods dropped a 10-162-0 stat line against Seattle in Week 9 of the 2016 season as a member of the Bills — Woods is a confident Flex option with WR2 upside for Week 15.

Stat of the Day:
In 2016, while playing for the Bills, Robert Woods had 10 receptions for 162 yards vs. the Seahawks in Seattle. #LARatSEA

— Mike Rigz (@MikeRigz) December 13, 2017

Week 15 TE Fantasy Sleepers

Marcedes Lewis
ESPN Start-Percentage: 1%


If you don’t already think the Jaguars’ offense is emerging in the second half of 2017, you haven’t been paying attention, especially if you’re one of my loyal readers/ listeners since I’ve raved about their potential for the better part of the last two seasons. And although Marcedes Lewis isn’t exactly producing jaw-dropping numbers, he is one of the better matchup-friendly tight ends available for Week 15 despite the fact that he failed to catch either of his two targets in last week’s win over the Seahawks. However, Seattle wasn’t the greatest opponent for Lewis as they are ranked 19th in fantasy production allowed to the TE position.


That’s not the case on Sunday as Lewis will face a familiar opponent in the form of the Texans in a much softer matchup. Facing a Houston defense surrendering the ninth most fantasy points to TEs at an 8.5 FPPG rate — they’ve allowed an opposing TE to accumulate at least 63 yards or a touchdown in six of their past eight games — Lewis is a touchdown-dependent TE2 for Week 15.

Adam Shaheen
ESPN Start-Percentage: 0.2%


Although Adam Shaheen (chest) was limited in practice this week with a chest injury — he is listed as questionable on the Week 15 injury report — the rookie tight end is expected to play in Sunday’s contest against the Lions. As a result, I believe Shaheen will return solid fantasy value in a favorable matchup. Why? Shaheen has picked his production up in recent weeks following a treacherous start to the year. While only he only caught 1-of-2 targets for two yards and a touchdown through the first nine weeks of the season, Shaheen has corralled in his last 11-of-12 targets for 125 yards and a pair of scores since Week 10. He is the TE13 with 24.5 points in that five-game time span.

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#Bears TE Adam Shaheen is #fantasyfootball's TE13 since Week 10 hauling in 11-of-12 targets for 125 yards and two touchdowns in that time-span.
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If Shaheen indeed plays in Sunday’s matchup against the Lions, and I fully expect him to, he’ll not only face a defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs at an 8.8 FPPG rate, but he’ll also oppose a team in which he dropped a 4-41-1 stat line on back in Week 11 in his only carer appearance against the club. Therefore, with Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph (ankle) doubtful to play this week with an ankle injury, I’m considering Shaheen the top spot start on a depleted waiver wire. He is a touchdown-dependent TE2 with upside for Week 15.


A player like Adam Shaheen is labeled a tournament-buster in DFS formats, especially with the opportunity he has in his upcoming matchup. For more extensive DFS knowledge, check out Mike Hauff’s Draft Kings Primer for Week 15. You can read that here.

Week 15 Sleepers (In Case You’re Desperate)

Rishard Matthews
ESPN Start-Percentage: 11.2%


If there was ever an offense in desperate need of a get-right matchup, it’s one of the Tennessee Titans. And boy, has Marcus Mariota been atrocious for a player that many experts, including myself, anticipated a breakout season for. However, this feature isn’t about Mariota. In fact, as he was in the running to make it into my article, I just don’t trust him. Moreover, as you read above, I actually trust Nick Foles, Blake Bortles, Joe Flacco and even Mitchell Trubisky more. The player I’m referring to right now is Rishard Matthews, whom aside from Delanie Walker has been the productive pass-catcher on the Titans this season.

Titans receiving stats courtesy of NFL.com:

RECEIVING STATISTICS
Player	Rec	Yds	Yds/Rec	Long	TD
Delanie Walker	63	718	11.4	42	2
Rishard Matthews	44	645	14.7	75	3
Eric Decker	40	409	10.2	29	1
DeMarco Murray	35	251	7.2	18	1
Corey Davis	25	256	10.2	23	0
Taywan Taylor	16	231	14.4	53	1
Jonnu Smith	13	127	9.8	32	2
Derrick Henry	7	55	7.9	14	0
Phillip Supernaw	4	39	9.8	20	1
Harry Douglas	1	8	8.0	8	0
Eric Weems	1	5	5.0	5	0

Although he’s been inconsistent in 2017, Matthews was still the WR27 with 80.3 fantasy points from the season opener all the way up to his Week 11 hamstring injury which sidelined him for his next two contests. And while he wasn’t productive in his Week 14 return — he is coming off a deflating  3-19-0 outing against the Cardinals — I believe Matthews is in line to bounce back in a favorable Sunday matchup against the 49ers.

Although San Francisco’s defense has improved of late — they’ve only allowed an opposing wideout to accumulate greater than 8.1 fantasy points in two of their past five games — they let DeAndre Hopkins torch them for an 11-149-2 stat line last week, finishing Week 14 as the WR1 with 24.9 fantasy points. And while I don’t believe Matthews will produce in WR1 fashion, I do think he will be effective. Facing a 49ers defense yielding the 14th most fantasy production to WRs at a 20.8 FPPG rate, Matthews, who despite missing three games this season, remains second on the Titans in targets with 73 behind Delanie Walker’s 91, is an opportunity-dependent Flex option with upside for Week 15.

Dede Westbrook
ESPN Start-Percentage: 9.2%


Okay, folks, this may blow up in my face, but I’m putting a lot of my eggs in the Jaguars’ basket in this week’s sleeper article. Now, I’m not telling you to start all three over your studs if you happen to roster them all, but they could be stacked for DFS purposes, but I’ll leave that talk for Mitchel Renz and his Week 15 Fan Duel Primer, which you can read here. Now back to my third Jaguar, who is Dede Westbrook.


Although Westbrook, a 2016 Heisman Trophy finalist, has been heavily targeted since making his NFL debut in Week 11 — he leads all Jaguars with 33 targets in that five-game time-span — his opportunities didn’t translate to quality fantasy production until the last week. The WR28 with 29.5 fantasy points since his aforementioned debut, Westbrook is coming off a Week 14 outing in which he caught 5-of-8 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown, finishing the week as the WR14 with 14 fantasy points.


Entering a plus matchup facing a banged up Texans defense surrendering the fourth most fantasy production to WRs at a 23.6 FPPG rate — they’ve allowed an opposing wideout to accumulate at least 106 yards receiving or a touchdown in their past 5-of-7 games — Westbrook has breakout WR2 upside for Week 15. Of my trio of Jaguars’ sleepers for Week 15, I’m most confident in Westbrook. I’m starting him over players like Michael Crabtree — even with Amari Cooper ruled out with an ankle injury.

Thank you for reading about my sleepers for Week 15. I hope you enjoyed it! Want more? Mike Hauff and I debate fantasy football news, notes and yes, sleepers, on our show, the Faceoff, a Gridiron Experts podcast. Check it out. Oh, and before I forget, we will answer your questions on our show! All you have to do is Tweet us with your question @FFfaceoff.

 

Thanks for reading and Good Luck!

 

Anthony Cervino | Fantasy Football Sleepers: Week 15 - Gridiron Experts

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