Jimmy Nelson Slides into Brewers’ Starting Rotation

The Milwaukee Brewers recently dealt long-time (albeit declining) ace Yovani Gallardo to the Texas Rangers, clearing $9 million in salary for the 2015 season while acquiring middle infield prospect Luis Sardinas . The Brewers’ newfound payroll flexibility and prospect depth, coupled with the Washington Nationals’ potential need for a new double-play combo in the near future, has many speculating that GM Doug Melvin will enter trade talks for Jordan Zimmermann .

Adding a pitcher of Zimmermann’s caliber makes sense for the Brewers beyond the superficial “he’s from Wisconsin!” level. Milwaukee’s starters ranked 15th in the majors in ERA and 21st in strikeouts, and that was with Gallardo. But Melvin is apparently committed to selecting a replacement from within. According to Melvin, 25-year-old Jimmy Nelson will get the first crack at replacing Gallardo. Is he ready?

A former top-100 prospect, Nelson tore through Triple-A Nashville last season (1.46 ERA, 9.2 K/9 in 111 innings pitched) but scuffled once he reached Miller Park (4.93 ERA in 69.1 frames, with a league-average 7.4 K/9). Nelson pitched better than his bloated ERA suggests, as the once-wild righty issued few free passes (2.6 BB/9) and posted a fielding independent ERA that was more than a run lower (3.78). He also showed off one of the nastier breaking pitches in the Senior Circuit: a high-80s slider that was surprisingly effective against hitters on both sides of the plate.

For most hurlers, the slider is more lethal when they have the platoon advantage against hitters. That’s why righty starters threw a slider to same-handed batters nearly twice as often in 2014 (18.3% of total pitches) as they did to lefties (9.4%). Not Nelson, though. The beefy right-hander relied upon his slider 22.1% of the time against lefties, which was the seventh-highest rate among NL starters throwing from the right side. While lefty batters tend to tee off on sliders thrown by opposite-handed pitchers, they had trouble catching upon with Nelson’s breaking stuff.

Opponent slugging percentage by pitch location vs. Nelson’s slider, 2014

Nelson handcuffed left-handers for a .235 slugging percentage on his slider, more than 100 points below the MLB average for righty starters against opposite-handed batters (.346). Among NL righties, just Mat Latos (.078 slugging percentage with his slider versus LHBs), Homer Bailey (.158) and Jason Hammel (.191) broke off more effective sliders versus lefties.

While Nelson showed promise during his rookie year, we’ll have to see whether he can continue to fool lefties with a sinker/slider repertoire, and no real changeup to speak of (he pulled the string just 2% of the time). The Steamer projection system forecasts that the University of Alabama product will be a passable back-of-the-rotation option in 2015 (a 4.37 ERA), though likely not a sufficient replacement for Gallardo. Melvin might not want to surrender prospects or pay a premium for James Shields to upgrade the rotation, but that’s what it might take for the Brewers to reach the postseason for the first time since 2011.

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