Friday, January 16, 2015

Fantasy football advice, NFL playoffs 2015: Considering Patriots and Colts

Posted by Doc Fantasy
Friday, January 16, 2015 | 0 comments

The Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots square off Sunday evening in the AFC Championship Game. Time to consider what FanDuel options they provide.

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Championship week is here, and for your intrepid Jets fan, the week is a perennial example of the sheer New England domination of my formative years. Tom Brady and the Patriots have been to nine championship games since 2001. In that same time period, they've failed to win the AFC East twice -- once due to a Brady knee injury.

They are the ever-present gloom over my NFL experience, the constant reminder that life is brutal and short and death is everywhere. And, here we are again, on the precipice of another possible Patriots Super Bowl berth, this year lacking the unique kryptonite of Eli Manning blacking out and carrying his team to glory. Andrew Luck, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

For our purposes, we'll avoid the pathological hatred and look at some possible matchup plays in the AFC title bout. With only two games to choose from, you'll get stuck with a good chunk of nausea-inducing, pants-ruining, sheer panicked lineup choices. Our goal today is to provide the FanDuel Tums to calm that achy stomach.

Have you ever danced with the devil in the pale moonlight? Play a Pats RB

We tempt the anarchic fantasy gods by placing any faith in the Patriots running game. Between Tom "Lightning" Brady scoring a rushing touchdown last week, Shane Vereen's ever tantalizing, never materializing value in the passing attack, and the variability of New England's gameplans, selecting one running back is quite difficult.

This week, I'm rolling with LeGarrette Blount as my reluctant selection. Last week, Blount struggled mightily against a stout Baltimore front, with New England abandoning the run game entirely in the second half. The Colts rush defense offers a far better matchup for Blount, as they allowed C.J. Anderson to rush for 80 yards at 4.4 a clip in a game tilted against the Broncos running the ball. Blount is only $5400 this week, so he's a nice RB2 for our lineup choices.

Sidenote: The Patriots have destroyed Luck and the Colts on the ground in every meeting. I am hesitant to predict that same gameplan this weekend, but it is nice to see a consistent track record of rushing devastation.

Gronk is a must play, regardless of cost

We covered this last week, but there is absolutely no price too expensive for the Gronk experience. He is wonderfully consistent, has the highest upside of any positional play, and enjoys a level of production that's almost workhorse RB-like in its usage rate. Do you want to drop $8200 on Gronk, or do you want to save money and pray Coby Fleener finds the end zone?

No one on the Colts is ideal, but the wideouts are intriguing

I don't want too many Colts on my squad this weekend. I have the creeping notion that we're looking at a brutal Patriots beatdown, as much I as hope for the opposite. However, the murky WR3 options this weekend leave Hakeem Nicks and Donte Moncrief as interesting dart-throws. Nicks has been relatively consistent at his low value, scoring an average of 9.2 points over this five-week "resurgence." Moncrief is the more exciting player, but his production has been woeful over that same time period. Operating under the assumption that T.Y. Hilton likely faces Darrelle Revis, I like Nicks as a supremely cheap play this weekend. Zombies do occasionally catch their targets.