Kenyan Drake Dynasty Value Is On The Rise
Kenyan Drake Dynasty Value
We are only a few weeks into 2018, but from what I’m seeing, Kenyan Drake’s Dynasty Value has been trending upwards at an accelerated rate. January is a risky month to make a trade in a Dynasty league, as you not only have to dodge rookies being added to NFL rosters through the NFL Draft, but you also have to try to predict the movement in Free Agency as well. The advantage obviously, is getting way out in front of the hype train.
Kenyan Drake, drafted in the 3rd round of the 2016 NFL Draft, had been an afterthought in the Dolphins offense playing behind Jay Ajayi for some time, but on October 31st, Halloween of all days, the Miami Dolphins spooked their fanbase and the football world by trading Ajayi to the Eagles for a 3rd round pick. The move allowed breathing room in the Dolphins backfield that allowed Drake to emerge late in the 2017 season.
Drake’s sample size is still very small but has shown flashes of potential. As it seems, Dynasty owners have the Dolphins RB high on their “Buy Low” target list.
Kenyan Drake 2017 Gamelog
| Opp | Result | Att | Yds | YPC | TD | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
| LAC | W 19-17 | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYJ | L 6-20 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| NOR | L 0-20 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| TEN | W 16-10 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ATL | W 20-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| NYJ | W 31-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| BAL | L 0-40 | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OAK | L 24-27 | 9 | 69 | 7.7 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| CAR | L 21-45 | 7 | 82 | 11.7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| TAM | L 20-30 | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| NWE | L 17-35 | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| DEN | W 35-9 | 23 | 120 | 5.2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| NWE | W 27-20 | 25 | 114 | 4.6 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| BUF | L 16-24 | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| KAN | L 13-29 | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BUF | L 16-22 | 14 | 75 | 5.4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Dynasty Trade Value
To get a better gauge on what his trade value was, I started a twitter poll. To be honest, I surprised people actually clicked on the first round option as usually if you asked someone what they are willing to pay, they will answer the bargain price. However, as I mentioned in the relies, I bet those who voted for a second round pick would pay up if they were sitting on the clock at 1.09 or 1.10 and unhappy with the options available.
The knock on Drake will always be his injured past. He suffered a number of injuries at BAMA and had some lingering after-effects in his rookie season when he went pro. However, I don’t believe you should be afraid of a players injured past, you should be afraid of how a player responds to injury, which Drake’s case has been positive.
Drake didn’t get more than 8 carries until December 3rd but did end the season with 644 rushing yards on 133 attempts (4.8 ypc). He also added 239 yards receiving yards on 32 carries and had 4 combined touchdown.
Working on a Kenyan Drake Dynasty article. Price check on #dynastytrades. What would you pay for Drake?
— Mike Rigz (@MikeRigz) January 3, 2018
Fantasy Breakdown
Drake split carries with Damien William after Jay Ajayi was traded, but when Williams suffered a shoulder injury week 12, that’s when we got to see what Drake was capable of with as a lead back.
| Week | Matchup | OPP | Att | Yards | AVG | TD | REC | Yards | AVG | TD |
| 13 | 03-Dec | DEN | 23 | 120 | 5.2 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 | 11-Dec | NE | 25 | 114 | 4.6 | 0 | 5 | 79 | 15.8 | 0 |
| 15 | 17-Dec | @BUF | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| 16 | 24-Dec | @KC | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 31-Dec | BUF | 14 | 75 | 5.4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 0 |
| Five-Week Total | 91 | 444 | 4.9 | 2 | 17 | 150 | 6.72 | 0 | ||
Using Drake’s 5 game sample as an indicator of what he could possibly do if given a starting role, you get solid RB1 type numbers:
| Drake Averages | Att | Yards | AVG | TD | REC | Yards | AVG | TD | ||
| 5 Week Avg | 18.2 | 88.8 | 0.98 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 30 | 1.34 | 0 | ||
| 16 game season | 291 | 1421 | 15.7 | 6.4 | 54 | 480 | 21.5 | 0 | ||
In PPR leagues, Drake would average 280 fantasy points. That’s LeSean McCoy territory. In Standard, 226 Fantasy points.
Now, of course, all these projections need to be taken with a grain of salt. As Damien Williams injury allowed for Drake to play as the lead back and next season there are no guarantees that Drake gets to become the starter. You also have to factor in injury as mentioned above, as we’re not sure if Drake can handle a full workload, yet despite all this, the upside to his potential is there, which is why I’m getting so many emails and trade offers in the Dynasty Leagues I own Drake.
Trade Advice
At this point, I’m holding to see how things pan out. Damien Williams is a UFA and may test the open market. He’s only 25 years old and the team may feel he is replaceable through the NFL Draft with a day-three type rookie to complement Drake. If Drake enters the new season as the lead dog with nothing more than a rookie and possibly a cheap veteran free agent behind him, I would be very excited about his potential this season. Obviously, the worst case scenario would be the team re-signs Williams and the two RB’s continue to split carries or the Dolphins burn a high pick on an RB at the NFL Draft. However, I’m banking on the team using their cap money and draft picks to improve other areas of need.
Interesting (Yet Random) Stats:
- Kenyan Drake changed direction on 42.0 percent of his rushing attempts this year, which is the highest rate among the 72 running backs with at least 50 attempts this season. On those runs, he’s racked up 222 rushing yards and averaged 4.28 yards after contact per carry, both of which are the second-most among the same group. – Pro Football Focus
- The Dolphins offensive line was considered to be one of the worst in the league as far as run blocking goes, making what Drake did that much more impressive. AdvancedFootballAnalytics.com
Miami's @KDx32 led the NFL in rushing (444 yards) in the final five weeks of the season:
1. Kenyan Drake (MIA) – 444
2. Todd Gurley (LAR) – 440
3. Kareem Hunt (KC) – 437
4. Marshawn Lynch (OAK) – 434
5. C.J. Anderson (DEN) – 422— Brett Brecheisen (@bbrech) January 2, 2018
Follow me on Twitter! – Love to hear your thoughts on what you’d be willing to trade Kenyan Drake for.
Mike Rigz | Kenyan Drake Dynasty Value Is On The Rise - Gridiron Experts
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