ThriveFantasy Player Prop Advice: Week 1
The Secret to Making Player Prop Selections at ThriveFantasy
Have you ever heard of ThriveFantasy? It is a new Daily Fantasy Sports app that is unlike your usual competitive fantasy choices and meant for the everyday fan. ThriveFantasy focuses on top-tier athletes from every sport while streamlining the drafting process. The result is a captivating DFS game that even the casual and hardcore sports fan can enjoy. You build a lineup around a list of simple binary player propositions.
The less likely the player prop is to take place the more points the choice will be worth. You score points based on the number of props you select correctly. As an example, your team could be made up of 15 picks that you select out of an available list of 20. You will also select two in case of emergency or ICE picks. These ICE picks will automatically be added to your team only if an athlete is ruled out of a game prior to their start time. You will be alerted if an ICE is being used. ThriveFantasy has an app that features live updates to let you know in real time how close your picks are to hitting and to provide you a line of sight of how you stack to the competition.
This season-long weekly series at Gridiron Experts will focus on providing you strategies on how to dominate ThriveFantasy’s Traditional NFL Featured Contests. The traditional contests allow you to select a player’s individual stat line or a combination of stat lines to win a predetermined amount of fantasy points. While the ones that are featured have the “star” logo, the biggest prize pools, and the largest payouts.
This week’s article will focus on the $20 NFL $10K Guaranteed Contest.
MAKING PICKS
This a contest that allows you to pick 10 out of 20 options. The less probable the prop is to occur, the more points you receive if you choose correctly. Players must be on the field for at least one snap to qualify. Let’s dive into all of the player props.
- Tom Brady
302.5 Pass YDS
- Over = 95 PTS
- Under = 105 PTS
The matchup between the Patriots and the Texans has the highest over/under of any of the Week games at 51. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has only averaged 283.4 passing yards per game over his last 60 regular season games. The only time in his career he has averaged 300 or more passing yards per game was during the 2007 season. My recommendation is to take the under on this player prop.
- DeAndre Hopkins
86.5 Receiving Yards
- Over = 110 PTS
- Under = 90 PTS
DeAndre Hopkins has averaged 11 targets, 6.1 receptions, and 81.8 receiving yards per game over his last 47 regular season games. He also has a 51 percent receiving success rate over this time frame. A play is considered a success if it yields 50 percent of the yards to go on first down, 70 percent of the yards to go on second down, or yields a new set of downs on third or fourth down. A wide receiver (or running back) over 50 is very consistent. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.
- Le’Veon Bell
83.5 Rush Yards
- Over = 105 PTS
- Under = 95 PTS
Le’Veon Bell has averaged 95 rushing yards per game over his last 27 regular season games with a 52 percent rushing success rate. He is currently the midst of an ugly holdout with the Steelers front office.
This is a situation to avoid considering Bell has not attended training camp or played in any preseason games. My recommendation is to take the under in the scenario that he is somehow active.
- Drew Brees
22.5 Competitions
- Over = 85 PTS
- Under = 115 PTS
Drew Brees has averaged 39.19 pass attempts per game over his last 47 regular season games. He has completed 70 percent of them which equates 27.4 completions per game. The matchup between the Saints and the Buccaneers has an over/under of 49.5. The total has gone over in four of the Saints last five games at home. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.
- Mike Evans
0.5 Touchdowns
- Over = 135 PTS
- Under = 65 PTS
Mike Evans has averaged 9.5 targets and 0.5 touchdowns per game in 61 regular season games since his rookie season in 2014. The opportunities will be there against the Saints, but he was held in check last season by NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore both games. My recommendation is to take the under on this player prop.
- Jimmy Garoppolo
1.5 Pass Touchdowns
- Over = 115 PTS
- Under = 85 PTS
Jimmy G only averaged 1.2 touchdowns per game in six games last season. The 49ers offense faces a Vikings defense that ranked second in passing fewest number of passing touchdowns per game with 1.1 (0.9 per game at home). My recommendation is to the under on this player prop.
- Leonard Fournette
0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Leonard Fournette had a solid rookie campaign averaging 20.6 rushing attempts and 0.7 touchdowns per game in 13 regular season games in 2017. He only handled 35.4 percent of the Jaguars rushing attempts inside the 20 last season. The addition of offensive guard Andrew Norwell suggests the Jaguars will continue to lean heavily on the running game. Fournette should continue to see a heavy workload considering he has no serious threats on the team’s roster that could negatively impact his touches. The Giants defense allowed 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game last season. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.
- Odell Beckham
5.5 Receptions
- Over = 90 PTS
Under = 110 PTS
Odell Beckham has been phenomenal averaging 10.6 targets and 6.7 receptions per game over his last 47 regular season games dating back to 2014. He has a difficult matchup against Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey, but new Giants head coach and play caller Pat Shurmur can scheme to get the football in Beckham’s hands. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.
- Joe Flacco
0.5 INT
- Over = 75 PTS
- Under = 125 PTS
Joe Flacco has averaged 0.95 interceptions per game over his last 42 regular season games. The Ravens matchup against the Bills has an over/under of only 40.5. Both teams have a habit of going under totals. Six of the last seven meetings between the Ravens and Bills have gone below the closing total with an average combined score of nearly 35 points. My projection is that the Ravens lean heavily on Alex Collins who averaged 15.7 touches per game last season and their stout defense. My recommendation is to take the under on this player prop.
- Kenyan Drake
75.5 Total ( Rush YDS + Rec YDS )
- Over = 100 PTS
- Under = 100 PTS
Kenyan Drake was very effective last season after locking up the lead back role in Week 13. He averaged 21.6 touches and 118.8 total yards per game from Week 13 to Week 17 with a 52 percent rushing success rate. The Titans defense will be a challenge for Drake on Sunday. The unit returns all of their defensive lineman which ranked fourth in the NFL against the run last season only allowing 3.6 yards per carry. The Dolphins have been very successful at home against the AFC with a record of 7-3. The offense has averaged nearly 28 points per game in those seven wins while their defense has only allowed 18.6. If this trend continues then positive game flow will be in Drake’s favor. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.
- Andrew Luck
245.5 Total Pass Yards
- Over = 90 PTS
- Under = 110 PTS
Andrew Luck has averaged 286.4 passing yards per game in 38 regular season games from 2014 to 2016. The over/under on the matchup between the Colts and Bengals is 48 which bodes well for this player prop considering how ineffective both defenses were in 2017. The Colts improved offensive line should keep Luck from taking too much contact. The team signed veteran guard Matt Slauson in NFL Free Agency, drafted guard Quenton Nelson sixth overall in the NFL Draft, and used a second-round draft pick on guard Braden Smith. The passing game will be the engine that drives the Colts offense in 2018. The team ranked 23rd in the NFL last season averaging a dismal 103.8 rushing yards per game and did not have a 1,000-yard rusher. The Colts running game has more questions than answers right now. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.
- Travis Kelce
67.5 Total Rec YDS
- Over = 110 PTS
- Under = 90 PTS
Travis Kelce has been very productive over the last three seasons averaging 7.3 targets, 5.1 receptions, and 64.6 receiving yards over his last 47 regular season games. He has had a 58 percent receiving success rate during that time frame. The Chiefs are 8-0 in their last eight games against the Chargers with an average winning margin of 12.38. Kelce will have an opportunity to exceed this player prop in a matchup that has an over/under of 48.
- Melvin Gordon
0.5 Touchdowns (Rush TD’s + Rec TD’s)
- Over = 125 PTS
- Under = 75 PTS
Melvin Gordon has averaged nearly a touchdown per game over his last 29 regular season games. The Chiefs defense gave up 2.5 touchdowns per game last season. It is a good chance that one of those goes to Gordon on the ground or through the air. The Chargers coaching staff plan on using Gordon more as a receiver out of the backfield this season. He set career highs with 83 targets and 58 receptions in 2017. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.
- Larry Fitzgerald
4.5 Total Receptions
- Over = 70 PTS
- Under = 130 PTS
Larry Fitzgerald has averaged 9.4 targets and 5.7 receptions per game since the 2004 season. Did you know he became the oldest player to have 100 receptions and 1,00o receiving yards in an NFL season last year? This was Fitzgerald’s third consecutive year hitting both marks. The absence of John Brown and Jaron Brown provide him with an opportunity to take on even more targets. Even with free agent addition Sam Bradford under center my recommendation is to take the over on this player prop for Fitzgerald.
- Russell Wilson
2.5 Total Pass TD’s + INT
- Over = 125 PTS
- Under = 75 PTS
If you combine Russell Wilson’s touchdowns and interceptions per game since the 2014 season the per game average comes out to 2.28. The over/under on the Denver game is 48, but the over has hit in seven of the Seahawks last 8 games at Denver. The Broncos defense has excellent pass rushers and two acceptable corners in Chris Harris and Bradley Roby. Wilson’s production last season on the road was eerily similar to his production at home.
My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.
- Ezekiel Elliott
91.5 Total Rush YDS
Over = 95 PTS
Under = 105 PTS
Ezekiel Elliott has played in 25 career games and has averaged 104.8 rushing yards and 22.6 rushing attempts per game with a 57 percent rushing success rate. The Cowboys offensive line appears to be falling apart before our eyes which is a concern, but I also have another one. The Panthers defense ranked third in rushing yards allowed (88.1) per game in 2017 while only allowing seven rushing touchdowns. Elliott is talented enough to transcend offensive line play and as a result, my recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.
- Aaron Rodgers
24.5 Total Completions
- Over = 110 PTS
- Under = 90 PTS
Did you know that Aaron Rodgers has averaged 22.6 completions per game over his last 55 games dating back to 2014? The Packers matchup against the Bears has an over/under of 48. The Packers and Bears have gone over in seven of their last nine matchups. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.
- Golden Tate
65.5 Total Rec Yards
- Over = 95 PTS
- Under = 105 PTS
Golden Tate and Marvin Jones have had similar statistics with the Lions over the last two seasons.
| Name | Team | Games | reSR | reTRGS | reRECS | reYDS |
| Golden Tate | Lions | 32 | 0.52 | 8 | 5.8 | 66.1 |
| Marvin Jones | Lions | 31 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 65.5 |
The over/under for the matchup between the Lions and Jets is only 45, but I believe it could become an offensive shootout. Last season the Lions hit the over 10 times. Tate has led all wide receivers in Yards After Catch each of the last two seasons. Did you know he accumulated 1,000 or more receiving yards in three out of the last four seasons? My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.
- Todd Gurley
125.5 Total Rush YDS + Rec YDS
- Over = 100 PTS
- Under = 100 PTS
Todd Gurley was amazing last season finishing as the No. 2 overall fantasy player. He averaged 22.9 touches and 139.6 total yards per game. Gurley is the engine that propels the Rams offense. The over/under on the game at Oakland is 49.5. The total has gone over in seven of the Rams last eight games on the road. Gurley will be in a position to meet or exceed this player prop.
- Amari Cooper
0.5 Total Rec TD’s
- Over = 135 PTS
- Under = 65 PTS
Amari Cooper has only scored 18 receiving touchdowns in 46 career games. The arrival of new Raiders head coach Jon Gruden is a reason to be optimistic.
In 11 years as coach, Jon Gruden had a 1,000-yard receiver every year, including 2 in 2001. The #Raiders have had 3 1,000-yard receiving seasons in last 12 years (Cooper 2015, Cooper and Crabtree 2016)
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) January 10, 2018
The departure of former Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree to the Ravens should provide Cooper with more targets this season especially in the red zone. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.
CONCLUSION
You have a compelling case for each of the player props in ThriveFantasy’s Week 1 Featured Traditional Contest. Which ones will you choose? Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!
Eric Moody | ThriveFantasy Player Prop Advice: Week 1 - Gridiron Experts
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