4 Potential Comeback Players of the Year

Posted by Doc Fantasy
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 | 0 comments

The NFL is very much focused on the philosophy of “What have you done for me lately?” The upside to that philosophy is that we get these great comeback stories each season. These stories are largely surrounded around players who are coming back from previous season-ending injuries. Let’s take a look at a few offensive players in the running for “Comeback Player of the Year” this season and what we can expect from them in Fantasy Football.

Andrew Luck
Quarterback


A leading candidate for “Comeback Player of the Year” is Andrew Luck as according to Betway as of August 28th you can find him ranked third on 5.5/1 odds behind Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz.


The Colts offense has looked lost without their fearless leader behind center. Jacoby Brissett tried his best to guide the team last season, but predictably flopped as the team finished with a 4-12 record. Before last season, the Colts had finished 8-8 or better in each of the last five seasons and enjoyed a playoff birth in three of those five seasons as well.

Fantasy Outlook

Andrew Luck has shown in the past that when healthy, he is one of the top QB’s to own in fantasy football. When using FantasyPros.com’s “Fantasy Leaders” report, you will see that Luck finished as a top-4 QB in fantasy in 3 of his 5 active seasons in the league. Luck’s ceiling in fantasy was realized in 2014 when he finished as the overall QB2, a mere 3.2 fantasy points behind Aaron Rodgers. Luck led the league with 40 passing TD’s that season and was third amongst QB’s with 4,761 passing yards.

Luck’s floor was his injury-shortened 2015 season where he only played 7 games. Luck still finished top-12 amongst QB’s in average points per game that season, however. 2015 was actually a very high scoring season for QB’s, to put it into perspective, Luck’s 18.7 PPG in 2015 over a 16 game span would have had him tied as the overall QB2 last season with Cam Newton.

The underrated key to Luck’s fantasy success is his rushing ability. Luck has averaged 20.6 rushing yards per game and has added 14 total rushing TD’s over his career, per pro-football-reference.com.

There will be plenty of rust to shake off for Luck after such a long layoff. The upside is incredible however as a potential top-5 QB, especially under new head coach Frank Reich who is coming off a season of pushing Carson Wentz into the upper echelon of fantasy performers.

Luck is a decent value currently on fantasyfootballcalculator.com with a mid-8th round draft price and being selected as the overall QB8. The QB position is so deep this year that there are lower risk options later in drafts such as Matthew Stafford or Philip Rivers, but Luck offers you a slightly higher ceiling than those guys.

David Johnson
Running Back


David Johnson missed all but one game last season as he exited Week 1 with a wrist injury. The absence of Johnson was felt through the whole Cardinals offense as they suddenly became predictable and one-dimensional without a respectable running game.


Quarterbacks get all the spotlight generally when it comes to accolades like “Comeback Player of the Year” but, if you want to bet on a skill position player, why not make it one of the leagues best dual-threat running backs who has a personal goal of hitting both 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season?

Fantasy Outlook

David Johnson was a huge bust last season as the top overall pick in fantasy football. We got one stinking game out of him before he went down for the year. Johnson was the top overall pick for a reason last year though coming off a prolific 2016 campaign where he not only finished as the overall RB1, but was also the top scoring player in all of fantasy in PPR leagues.

In 2016, Johnson rushed for 1,239 yards and led all running backs with 80 receptions for 879 yards and 20 total TD’s. The 80 receptions alone would have ranked Johnson inside the top-20 for a wideout even! It was a season for the ages as Johnson’s 25.5 average fantasy points per game were best in the league even above the overall QB1, Aaron Rodgers, who finished with 23.8 average PPG.

To add fuel to the fire, Johnson also happens to be in the last year of his rookie contract, so there is double the motivation for a huge bounce back. The silver lining to Johnson’s injury last season also was that it wasn’t a lower-body injury, which would have more of an impact on a running back’s performance. DJ’s legs are spry and ready to rumble.

People have not forgotten Johnson’s value as he is currently a top-3 pick in fantasy and you wouldn’t have to argue much if you took Johnson first overall.

Allen Robinson
Wide Receiver

Robinson regressed in 2016 despite seeing the exact same number of targets as he did in 2015 (151) and missed all but one game last season due to a torn ACL. Fast forward to this season, Robinson left the warmth of Jacksonville for the Windy City – Chicago. Robinson is looking for a huge bounce back with a rebuilding franchise.

Fantasy Outlook

One of the biggest stories of the offseason has been whether or not the Bears can pull off a 180-degree rebuild in one season like the Rams did last season. Robinson was brought in to fit the prototypical WR1 role for a second-year quarterback, Mitch Trubisky.

Robinson’s stats over his career have been hot and cold, making a solid projection of performance in a new home tough to feel out. With unproven assets all over the depth chart in the Bears’ passing game, however, Robinson should see all the targets he can handle. His size and dominance in the red zone will also make him an attractive target who could again flirt with double-digit touchdowns.

When looking at Robinson’s ADP on fantasy football calculator we see that he has seen a significant drop over the last month, giving him fair value in the middle of the fifth round. This is due to a rather quiet preseason from both Robinson and the Bears offense as a whole. Once we get into regular season play, however, Robinson should factor in as a weekly WR2 who will give you WR1 upside. If Robinson rounds into his 2015 form, he could sneak into the “Comeback Player of the Year” discussion.

Ryan Tannehill
Quarterback


The list of quarterbacks in the running for “Comeback Player of the Year” this season is loaded with talent. You’ve got Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck all coming back from injury. But what about Ryan Tannehill? What about a guy who could lead his team over the mighty Patriots in the AFC East!? Sure the Patriots have won their division 15 of the last 17 years, but it’s the type of thing that could happen that pushes Tannehill over the other QB’s on the comeback player list this season.


Tannehill missed all of last season and part of the 2016 season due to a knee injury but is set to retake the reigns in Miami this season.

Fantasy Outlook

Tannehill has shown flashes in his career and his ceiling was realized in 2014 where he finished as the QB8 in fantasy. His average of 17.4 fantasy points per game exactly matched none other than division rival – Tom Brady. It’s been all downhill from there however as Tannehill fell to QB17 in 2015 and QB27 (over 13 games) in 2016.

A challenge Tannehill will also face is the loss of his favorite target, Jarvis Landry. The team did bring in Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola to try and fill the void and also have a breakout candidate in tight end, Mike Gesicki.

I believe the Dolphins should have a higher volume passing game than people are expecting and the volume Tannehill was pumping out allowed him to finish with back-to-back 4,000-yard seasons before his injury. Tannehill is more useful in two QB leagues, but is worth a grab at the end of redraft leagues if you’re waiting on QB and want a decent matchup-based starter.

John Ferguson | 4 Potential Comeback Players of the Year - Gridiron Experts

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