Starling Marte Primed for Monster 2015 Season

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ resurgence over the past two seasons has been ascribed to many different factors — a total commitment to sabermetrics, pitch-framing and defensive shifts; pitcher-whispering abilities that have brought talented-but-lost arms back to life; eagle-eyed scouting, uncovering value from the amateur ranks to the independent leagues. But quietly, Starling Marte has done as much as anyone to lift the Bucs from NL Central bottom-dwellers to perennial contenders. And if the offensive gains that he made during the second half carry over to 2015, Marte could compete with his center field teammate for MVP honors.

Through the All-Star break, the Pirates’ left fielder was enduring a mediocre season at the plate (.256 AVG/.324 OBP/.383 SLG). His strikeout rate was approaching Pedro Alvarez -esque levels (27.7%), and he was hitting so many grounders (53.7% of balls put in play) that he rarely reached the gaps or cleared the fence. Things didn’t figure to improve much, considering that Marte took a Sean Rodriguez knee to the head in late June while attempting to break up a double play and got drilled in the head by an Adam Ottavino fastball in mid-July.

After Marte returned from the DL, though, he started inflicting punishment of his own. He batted .348/.408/.567 during the second half, posting the fourth-highest OPS (.975) among hitters taking at least 200 PAs. Only Giancarlo Stanton (.982), Anthony Rizzo (.978) and Buster Posey (.978) raked more after the Midsummer Classic. Marte kept company with those elite sluggers by making significantly more contact (18% K rate) and lofting pitches (his ground ball rate declined to 40%), and he made the biggest strides against breaking stuff.

Marte’s slugging percentage by pitch location vs. curveballs and sliders, 1st half of 2014

Marte’s slugging percentage by pitch location vs. curveballs and sliders, 2nd half of 2014

During the first half, Marte slugged .406 off curveballs and sliders. That’s hardly terrible — the big league average is .322 — but Marte could have done much more damage if he didn’t swing and miss so much (36.3%) and chop so many pitches into the grass (51.4%). In the second half, he was a new man versus breaking stuff: he whiffed just 23.7% of the time, and hit a grounder 40.5% of the time. And when he hit a curve or slider skyward, he really drove the ball (his average fly ball distance on breaking pitches increased from 293 feet in the first half to 299 feet in the second half).

Marte has already emerged as one of the game’s best left fielders without fitting the hulking slugger archetype (with 8.6 Wins Above Replacement since 2013, he trails just Alex Gordon among players at the position). Given his center field-worthy range and base running chops, Marte doesn’t have to mash to create value. Maybe his gargantuan second half is an outlier, but the 26 year-old is just entering his peak and could challenge for serious hardware if he keeps connecting and lifting breaking pitches. Think Carl Crawford during his Rays glory days, with more power.

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