If His Elbow Cooperates, Lee Could Be Elite in 2015

Seemingly half of the Philadelphia Phillies’ roster is on the trading block — Cole Hamels , Jonathan Papelbon , Ryan Howard , Chase Utley , the Phillie Phanatic — and Cliff Lee might seem like a particularly hard sell. Previously one of the game’s true workhorses, Lee tossed just 81 innings last year while spending more than 120 days on the DL with an elbow strain.

Aside from the obvious concern raised by a high-priced 36-year-old with over 2,000 career innings pitched suffering an elbow injury, some GMs might think that Lee has lost a step. His ERA ballooned to 3.65, far higher than his average over the three previous seasons (2.80 from 2011-13) and not much better than the overall average for National League starters in 2014 (3.73). Paying a sizeable chunk of the minimum $37.5 million that Lee is still owed ($25 million in 2015, and a $12.5 million buyout on a $25 million club option for 2016) and parting with prospects becomes much less palatable of you’re adding a merely average starter. But if his elbow cooperates, Lee still has what it takes to be elite.

While Lee punched out fewer hitters last year (20.5% of batters faced, compared to 25.3% in 2013), his control remained elite (3.4%) and he compensated for less Ks with more ground balls (48.3% of balls in play, up from 43.6% in ’13). Though the lefty’s ERA spiked, his corem more skill-based stats suggest he deserved better. Lee’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was 2.96 in 2014. In 2013, it was 2.82. Only 15 starters posted a lower FIP last season (minimum 80 IP). That’s hardly average production.

The main culprit for Lee’s less-than-stellar ERA? A .368 batting average on balls in play, which was nearly 80 points average his BABIP in 2013 (.289) and the highest mark among starters. You might think that with Lee’s elbow barking, his command took a turn for the worse. That, in turn, allowed hitters to tee off on meaty pitches thrown down the middle of the plate. That hardly seems to be the case, though.

Lee’s pitch location, 2013

Lee’s pitch location, 2014

In 2013, Lee threw 28.7% of his pitches to the horizontal middle of the plate. Last year, he located his stuff in that region of the zone 25.3% of the time. Pitches thrown down Broadway tend to get crushed, whether you’re Lee (.491 opponent slugging percentage on horizontal middle pitches from 2013-14) or most any other major leaguer (.463 overall MLB average). Considering that he actually did a better job of catching the corners in 2014, it looks like his “down” season was more the product of bad luck than bad pitch location.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has no reason to compromise when it comes to trading Hamels, who might just be underpaid in this cash-saturated MLB marketplace and assuaged early-season concerns about his shoulder by yet again topping 200 innings. But Lee’s recent health woes could present an opportunity for a team to swoop in and add an ace on a short-term deal without giving up the farm. With Lee, the medicals are paramount. His so-so ERA in 2014, though? Don’t sweat it.

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