Without Strikeout Stuff, Can Gallardo Thrive in the DH League?

The Texas Rangers’ starting rotation is rife with uncertainty. Ace Yu Darvish finished the 2014 season on the DL with elbow inflammation, while Derek Holland (left knee) and Matt Harrison (back) are major question marks after suffering injuries that prevented them from taking the mound the majority of last year. Martin Perez is also on the mend following Tommy John surgery in May. To add a more reliable innings muncher, the Rangers recently acquired Yovani Gallardo from the Brewers in exchange for middle infielder Luis Sardinas as well as right-handers Marcos Diplan and Corey Knebel . But with Gallardo progressively punching out fewer hitters, even the long-time front man of Milwaukee’s rotation isn’t a sure thing.

Gallardo, 29, holds the Brewers’ all-time strikeout record (1,226) and boasted the third-highest K rate (9.2 per nine innings) among qualified MLB starters from 2010-12, trailing just Tim Lincecum (9.4 K/9) and Clayton Kershaw (9.3 K/9). But after striking out a batter per frame in 2012, Gallardo racked up only 7.2 K/9 in 2013 and a career-low 6.8 K/9 in 2014 — far below the 7.4 average for big league starting pitchers.

Never one to light up radar guns, Gallardo tossed his fastball at about the same speed in 2014 (91.4 MPH) as he has during the Pitch F/X era overall (91.9 MPH since 2008). That holds true for his slider (87.3 MPH last season, 86.8 MPH since ’08) and curveball (79.1 MPH, 79.6 MPH), too. But his ability to generate whiffs, particularly high in the strike zone, has declined markedly.

Gallardo’s opponent contact rate on high pitches, 2012

Gallardo’s opponent contact rate on high pitches, 2013-14

In 2012, Gallardo got a whiff about 26% of the time on high pitches. That ranked 12th among MLB starters, just behind CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander , and easily bested the 21% average. But Gallardo’s upper-third whiff rate dipped to 20% in 2013, and 17% last season.

Gallardo’s ability to get Ks with Texas in the DH league could be further complicated by a change in battery mates. With Milwaukee, Gallardo benefited from two of the game’s better pitch-framers in Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado . Last year, Lucroy (86.3%) and Maldonado (87%) each had called strike rates on in-zone pitches that were well above the MLB average (83%). They also excelled in terms of stealing strikes for their pitchers, with Lucroy (9.8%) and Maldonado (10.4%) posting out-of-zone called strike rates that bested the average backstop (9%).

With Texas, Gallardo’s main catcher figures to be Robinson Chirinos . While we don’t have a ton of data on the 2014 rookie, Chirinos had a well below-average called strike rate on in zone pitches (80.7%) and was average on stuff thrown off the plate (9.2%). Last year, Gallardo got called strikes 86.7% of the time on in-zone pitches and 10.9% of the time on out-of-zone stuff. Those extra calls helped Gallardo notch the 10th-most looking strikeouts (61) among MLB starters. He wasn’t missing many bats, but he was working with an expanded strike zone. That might not be the case with the Rangers.

Gallardo did show some signs of adapting to a lower-octane style in 2014, establishing new career highs in ground ball rate (50%) and percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone (46.5%). Short of returning to the form that made him an all-time franchise strikeout leader, Gallardo will need to keep the ball down and display sharp command to boost the Rangers’ playoff prospects — and boost his own free agent stock next winter.

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