Stephen Drew: Down and Out?

Stephen Drew is a man down on his luck. The lefty-swinging shortstop won a World Series ring with the Red Sox in 2013, turning in arguably the best full-season offensive performance of his career (a 111 OPS+) just as he hit the free agent market. But after the Sox made Drew a qualifying offer and he declined, no club felt compelled to pay $14-plus million a year for his services while also surrendering a draft pick. Drew eventually re-upped with Boston in late May, settling for $10 million for the remainder of 2014. After the wretched year he endured, it’s no surprise that he’ll be taking another huge pay cut in 2015.

In an abbreviated season split between the Red Sox and Yankees, Drew’s park-and-league-adjusted OPS was 50 percent worse than the big league average (50 OPS+). That tied his one-time Red Sox teammate Jackie Bradley Jr. for dead last among hitters logging at least 300 plate appearances in 2014. He was actually worse upon reaching the Bronx at the trade deadline (39 OPS+) than he was in Boston (63 OPS+), which is why it’s surprising that Yankees GM Brian Cashman just handed Drew a one-year, $5 million contract for 2015 that includes $1.5 million in possible incentives. The former top-15 pick will report to spring training looking to beat out prospect Rob Refsnyder (who hit .300/.389/.456 at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) for the Yankees’ second base job.

If Drew hopes to avoid becoming intimately familiar with the Triple-A circuit himself in future seasons, he’s going to have to find a way to keep pitchers from overpowering him low in the strike zone. Drew was once an excellent low-ball hitter, routinely slugging in the .450-500 range when pitchers pounded him at the knees, but that region of the plate has become a serious liability. Check out Drew’s slugging percentage by pitch location in 2014:

Last year, MLB hitters slugged a collective .386 against pitches located in the lower third of the strike zone. But Drew? He slugged .141. On anything thrown at the knees, he transformed into a pitcher at the plate. His slugging percentage on lower-third stuff was the lowest among batters seeing at least 500 pitches in that zone, with Nick Swisher (.145), Junior Lake (.146), Jedd Gyorko (.158) and Chris Denorfia (.165) not far behind. Surprisingly, opponents actually gave Drew fewer low pitches (41%) than the MLB average (43%). With a winter to pore over video and devour scouting reports, pitchers could try to kneecap Drew more often in 2015.

Entering his age-32 season, Drew is battling for more than the chance to be Didi Gregorious’ double-play partner — he’s battling for his career. He probably has the inside track on the second base gig, and his defense hasn’t shown the same dramatic decline as his bat. Maybe the two-month layoff to begin 2014 wreaked havoc with his swing. But projection systems like Steamer forecast better offensive stats for Refsnyder (.705 OPS) than Drew (.662). At this critical moment, Drew’s either going to adapt and protect the lower part of the zone, or receive an even frostier response from GMs next winter.

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