NFL Picks: Conference Championship Fantasy Football Preview
With Conference Championship week upon us, we all inch one step closer to the end of the Fantasy Football and NFL season. It’s a bummer, to be sure, but there is still cash to be made, whether by way of correctly predicting picks for the final few games, or choosing the right fantasy studs in fantasy leagues or games. We still have this week and then the Super Bowl, so let’s do our best to soak it all up before it’s gone for another seven months.
Our focus this week is specifically on the two Conference Championship games, as both sides will duke it out to see who will move on to the Super Bowl in two weeks. Let’s pick each matchup, while also analyzing who your best bets are in the fantasy scene:
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay hasn’t had much luck against Seattle in recent memory. In fact, the luck has been atrocious. Two meetings ago, the Packers had the contest won in Seattle, but couldn’t defy horrid luck and even worse refereeing, when the infamous “Fail Mary” went down. That gave the Seahawks a huge win and that ultimately propelled them to the playoffs, and they’ve really been a group of man-eaters ever since. In week one of this year, Green Bay went back to Seattle for an epic rematch with the defending Super Bowl champs, but couldn’t keep the game close late due to turnovers and shaky defense.
The story isn’t changing. In fact, the Pack also have to worry about the health of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who clearly had his mobility impacted the past two weeks due to a tear in his calf. Against an elite Seattle defense that held this explosive Packers offense to just 16 points in the first game of the year, that could be awful news. Just how good Rodgers can be inside the pocket and how sound his pass protection ends up being will surely play a huge hand in how close this game actually ends up being. It’s already hard enough to beat the Seahawks at any venue, but doing so in Seattle with the 12th Man, and also trying to do so with a less than 100% star quarterback, well, it’s not ideal.
Seattle’s Keys to Winning: Feed Marshawn Lynch, stuff Eddie Lacy and blitz like crazy.
The Packers can’t stop the run and Lynch is a monster, so Seattle’s main key to success is about as obvious as it gets. Even though their defense is a top level unit, keeping Aaron Rodgers and a very capable Green Bay offense off the field as much as possible has to be mission number one. By pounding the rock with Lynch, Seattle should be able to keep the chains moving, grab some points and also control the pace of the game. Stuffing Lacy plays right into that, and once they’re able to slow down Green Bay’s rushing attack and make the Packer offense more predictable, they’ll be able to freely blitz. Seattle really doesn’t even blitz that much or necessarily rely on it, but if they want to it could prove to be a valuable and effective strategy. Seattle knows they can accomplish all three of these points, because they’ve done them all in the last two meetings with Green Bay.
Green Bay’s Keys to Winning: Somehow stop Marshawn Lynch, contain Russell Wilson and protect Aaron Rodgers.
Lynch ran all over the Packers in their last meeting, and when Seattle has been slowed down or completely stopped over the past few seasons, it’s had a ton to do with “Beast Mode” being relatively contained. Green Bay has not boasted the strongest defense and specifically struggles against the run, but if they want a serious chance in this one, they’ll have to keep Lynch from pushing them around as easily as he did back in week one (100 rushing yards and two scores). Playing into that is the mobility of Wilson and how effective he can be on roll outs and play action. Limiting Lynch would naturally bleed into limiting Wilson, who is not nearly as effective when the running game isn’t operating according to plan. Offensively, the Packers will hope to keep a balanced attack with Eddie Lacy pounding the rock, but the ‘Hawks are quite stout against the run, so that’s no lock. The main lock may be hoping on Rodgers staying upright and slicing up Seattle’s vaunted pass defense. In order to do that, though, Green Bay’s pass protection may have to be immaculate. It’s unlikely all three of these keys work out for the Pack, but if they do, they’ll surely have a shot at pulling off the upset.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Packers 23
Fantasy Plays: Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin and Randall Cobb
Going with anyone in Seattle in fantasy football makes a ton of sense this week. Lynch is probably the guy to take the cake, with Wilson a close number two. A Seahawks receiver seems to always bust a huge touchdown in big games, so Baldwin is a safe bet, too. Green Bay is going to have to throw a good amount to try to keep this game close, so Aaron Rodgers might also be worth using. Cobb is probably the best option, though, as he’ll look to do most of his damage across the middle of the field out of the slot.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
The Colts could be in serious trouble when they head to Foxboro on Sunday, as they go up against a deadly Patriots squad that has blown them out in their last two meetings. The Pats have also topped Indy in three of their last four playoff meetings. It’s certainly worth noting just how potent this Indy offense is, but with zero running game and a shaky defense behind them, things could get ugly fast. On the flip side, Tom Brady is coming off an amazing Divisional Round playoff performance and really has been red hot ever since week five. This Patriots offense isn’t about to be shut down on their home field, while their pass defense has been one of the stingiest all year. Luck out-dueling Brady in New England doesn’t look like something you’ll want to bank on, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be a close or even high-scoring battle.
Indy’s Keys to Winning: Find a way to run the ball, get to Tom Brady and beat the Pats deep.
The Colts have no running backs that strike fear into the opposition, but they have to try to run the ball in this game – both to keep control of the pace and to keep Tom Brady off the field. That probably won’t end up happening, but if they are to win, it’s going to be one of the first things they try to get done. Regardless of whether or not that happens, they’ll also probably need to find a way to take the top off of New England’s stingy pass defense. These two will likely have to work hand in hand, but one or the other could still keep the Colts in this game. Of course, neither may matter if they can’t stifle the Pats to some degree on the other side of the ball. Shutting down New England’s running game hasn’t worked at all in the last two meetings, so their best course of action may be trying to rattle Brady. When Brady gets pressured in the playoffs, he tends to fold a bit.
New England’s Keys to Winning: Stay balanced on offense, force Luck into mistakes and dictate the tempo of the game.
The Patriots are at home against a familiar foe that they have been dominating. To win, all they probably have to do is stay true to themselves and keep the Colts from killing them with huge plays. New England has the offense to win a shootout, but avoiding that is probably the ideal route. Regardless of whether or not they can get a balanced offense rolling, the Pats could still lean on Andrew Luck’s mistakes. The young passer is gifted and could give the Pats problem, but he also makes mistakes and can be prone to turnovers. If the Pats can get him to throw even two picks, they’ll be in great shape. Naturally, doing either of these first two points allows New England the chance at dictating the pace of this contest on their home field. If they can do that, it’s game over.
Pick: Patriots 38, Colts 24
Fantasy Plays: Rob Gronkowski, LeGarrette Blount and T.Y. Hilton.
The Gronk seems to be a guy that just can’t be stopped, so you probably have to use him in every fashion in fantasy football. The Pats also probably plan on exploiting a beatable Colts run defense with their running game, and that’s especially likely after they did so the last two times they faced Indy. In fact, Blount did it last year in the playoffs, so no one should be the least bit surprised if he goes nuts in this game. On the flip side, I can’t see the Colts just lying down and going willingly. As good as New England’s defense can be, I still think you can use Andrew Luck with some confidence and T.Y. Hilton should have a solid shot at breaking a few big plays.
The post NFL Picks: Conference Championship Fantasy Football Preview appeared first on Fantasy Football Overdose | Fantasy Football Rankings And Projections.
Full article from Fantasy Football Overdose via http://ift.tt/1AtZUQc
0 comments: