Lance Lynn: Righty Killer

The St. Louis Cardinals just assured they won’t have any contentious arbitration hearings with starting pitcher Lance Lynn , signing the durable right-hander to a three-year, $22 million deal with an additional $1.5 million in potential incentives. The 27-year-old has quietly established himself as one of the better starters in the National League over the past three seasons, ranking 13th in adjusted ERA (107 ERA+) and 14th in Wins Above Replacement (7.8). There’s nothing sexy about Lynn’s approach, but he chews up innings (200+ innings in each of the last two seasons), whiffs nearly a batter per frame (8.7 K/9 since 2012), and keeps the ball in the park (0.7 HR/9 allowed).

In fact, Lynn might have the most straightforward approach in the game. He’s going to throw fastballs — lots and lots of fastballs. The former supplemental first-round pick out of Mississippi has tossed his heater three-quarters of the time since 2012, ranking behind only Bartolo Colon (85.3%) and Henderson Alvarez (79.1%) among qualified starters. Like Colon, Lynn is a big-bodied righty who has thrived by chucking one less-than-searing fastball after another (Lynn averaged 92.3 MPH with the pitch last season, close to the 91.8 MPH average for right-handed starters). Predictable? Maybe. Yet despite his disdain for breaking and off-speed stuff and his average zip, Lynn has mowed down fellow right-handers like few others.

Over the past three years, Lynn has suffocated righties to the tune of a .638 OPS. That’s ninth-lowest among righty starters facing at least 1,000 same-handed batters, behind Max Scherzer (.572), Felix Hernandez (.601), Johnny Cueto (.606), Stephen Strasburg (.615), Adam Wainwright (.619), Hiroki Kuroda (.630), Zack Greinke (.634) and A.J. Burnett (.637). While Lynn might lack the premium velocity of a Scherzer or Strasburg, he takes a power approach by challenging right-handed hitters high in the zone. When facing a same-handed batter, the average right-hander throws his fastball to the upper third of the strike zone about 31% of the time. Lynn, meanwhile, elevated his fastball nearly 36% of the time over the past three years. And his high heat eludes bats:

Right-handed hitters’ contact rate by pitch location vs. Lynn’s fastball, 2012-14

Lynn induced whiffs 33% of the time he threw a high fastball from 2012-14, blowing away the 21% MLB average for righty vs. righty confrontations. Among qualified right-handed starters, only Scherzer (35.8%) and Yu Darvish (33.2%) racked up a higher rate of swings and misses. Luckily for Lynn, he’s in an NL Central division that isn’t stacked with top lefty batters, who have posted a .766 OPS against him since 2012. With one dominant offering and a division suited to his strengths, Lynn looks well-positioned to keep delivering predictable, dependable outings for the Cardinals.

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