David Wright’s Thinking Playoffs — Can He Shoulder the Load in 2015?

For the first time in years, the New York Mets have legitimate playoff aspirations. With Matt Harvey returning from Tommy John surgery, 2014 NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler breaking out, and prospect Noah Syndergaard soon to follow, the Mets feature a starting rotation capable of lifting them out of 70-something win mediocrity. It’s enough to get third baseman David Wright all fired up — he recently told the New York Post that “I fully expect us to be in the playoffs” in 2015.

For the Mets to make good on Wright’s prediction, they’ll need their longtime lineup anchor to return to form — and health — next season. Wright had arguably established himself as the gold standard at his position, ranking third among third basemen in Wins Above Replacement (44.8) and adjusted OPS (138 OPS+) between 2005-13. But his 2014 campaign was torpedoed by a left shoulder injury that eventually required season-ending surgery to repair ligament damage. Unable to drive the ball, Wright established new career lows in OPS+ (101), homers (eight) and Isolated Power (.105). He’s currently on the rehab trail, but he enters his age-32 season with plenty to prove. Just as the Mets surround Wright with young, impact talent, their franchise players turns into a $20 million-a-year question mark.

Wright still proved capable of hitting with authority to the pull side during his injury-marred 2014 season, with a slugging percentage to left field (.588) in line with his 2012-13 production (.602). But he became a slap hitter on anything put in play to center or the opposite field. Check out Wright’s spray chart in 2012-13, and then in 2014:

2012-13

2014

Wright was an all-fields masher in 2012-13, slugging .646 to center and .572 to the opposite side. Last year, though? He slugged just .437 to center and .379 to right field. Making matters worse, Wright hit far more fly balls to right field in 2014 (31.1%) than in years past (22.7%). With his should ailing, Wright seemed to have trouble generating the bat speed necessary to pull the ball. That slower lumber might also explain Wright’s other major problem in 2014. Typically an elite fastball hitter, Wright was overpowered by high-velocity stuff last year.

Wright’s slugging percentage by pitch location vs. fastballs, 2012-13

Wright’s slugging percentage by pitch location vs. fastballs, 2014

Wright slugged .399 off fastballs in 2014 — a far cry from his .565 clip in 2012-13 and nearly 20 points below the MLB average (.417). As the heat maps show, he had the most difficulty driving fastballs thrown away — the kind that a healthy Wright often lashed for extra base hits to center and right field. Wright slugged .259 against outside heaters in 2014, compared to .592 the two previous seasons.

No player matters more to the Mets’ prospects in 2015 and beyond than Wright, who’s still owed $107 million between now and the end of the 2020 season. Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler and Syndergaard will keep runs off the board, but the Amazin’s need their all-time hits and total bases leader to ensure those outings don’t go to waste.

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